investment poll

Archive for August, 2009

Wherever you look, the story is the same. House prices are in free fall. What are the facts? According to the S&P/Case-Shiller national index, house prices fell by 14% in the year to April 2008! Those of you who like history will know that’s a faster fall than the Great Depression of the 1930s. I always like to be encouraging.

So what’s going on? Well, a lot of people convinced themselves that buying property was a sure-thing investment. Buy today, sell tomorrow with a big gain. That made it a no-brainer to buy your own home. Unfortunately, two things happened. The was a boom in the construction industry which produced more houses for sale than there are buyers. Secondly, the credit crunch has made banks more cautious in lending money (actually, some banks have gone bust).

The result? Negative equity! Lots of people who owe more on their homes than the homes are worth. How does this affect the home insurance policy? Not at all! Well, that’s perhaps a little optimistic so let’s explore. Home insurance is designed to replace your home if it’s destroyed. The value of the cover is therefore not the sale price but the cost of rebuilding. So, no matter how much your home falls in value, it makes no difference to the premium. Except that there are more national statistics to worry about. According to the latest figures published up to July 2008, US inflation is at a twenty-seven year high. The Labour Department monitors the producer price index (PPI), that’s prices at the wholesale level. That rose by 9.8% in July.

So you should care because? Because the prices of bricks and all the other stuff needed to repair or rebuild your damaged home just got that much more expensive. Worse? There’s no sign price inflation is going to slow. So, when it comes to renewing your home insurance policy, it would be wise to get two or three online quotes from “reputable” builders to revalue the policy. Without this precaution, you might find yourself underinsured, even on a small claim. But if you get hit by a hurricane or some other natural catastrophe, you may not be able to afford rebuilding if you don’t have the savings to bridge the gap between the insured amount and the actual cost of rebuilding.

There’s a sobering saying, “The female of the species is more deadly than the male.” It first surfaced in a poem by Rudyard Kipling and achieved international recognition through the “shock shock horror” song by Space. Taken literally when applied to humanity, it suggests women are more likely to kill you than men. Except, when it comes to driving, this is almost certainly not true. There’s a myth put about by men that women are bad drivers. Talk to the average male driver and they will pour scorn on women, telling tall stories about dangerous behavior on the roads. Yet this sexist view is not supported by the accident statistics. When you add up all the numbers from around the world, men are three times more likely to die on the roads than women. The truth seems to be that men may have better spatial awareness and so slightly better control of their vehicles. But women have better self-control which makes them safer drivers. The result in the gender stakes is that men, particularly when young, are more reckless than women, driving faster with less attention. Women are more cautious, driving more slowly and causing fewer serious accidents. Even more importantly, women have fewer emotional hang-ups about the cars they drive. Whereas men prefer to be seen in fast, sleek sporty cars, women tend to have more modest (and cheaper) tastes.

Let’s put the big picture together. For now, we’ll assume that women are as good as male drivers and both sexes have the same number of accidents. The cars driven by women will be traveling more slowly when they collide. That means there will be less impact and so a reduced risk of injuries. Now add in the fact that women tend to be driving less expensive cars and the total loss of damage to the vehicles and injuries to the people inside will always be lower. The rest of the statistics from law enforcement complete the picture. When it comes to tickets issued and convictions, women are rarely caught exceeding the speed limit, do not drive recklessly and are less likely to drive while drunk or incapacitated by drugs. Finally, men love their cars and prefer to drive them over long distances. Women make shorter commuter journeys and take the plane or train over longer distances.

This means lower premiums for women drivers. They are more careful, have fewer accidents and cause less damage. Men are less likely to obey the law, and more likely to be injured and cause injuries. Car insurance premiums are therefore significantly higher for younger male drivers and, on average, higher than the equivalent female drivers over their lifetimes. So, when women go online to use the search engines for the best insurance rates, they are likely to be pleasantly surprised. The only strategy that men can adopt is to build up a trouble-free driving record over time. The longer male drivers go without picking up a ticket, the better. Savings will also flow from buying cheaper, less powerful cars and driving them less. Accepting mileage restrictions saves dollars on auto insurance premiums. In fact, men save money when they drive like women.

The magic letters stand for a Health Savings Account and this represents a different way of solving the health plan problem. In effect, the HSA is self-insurance with tax advantages, allowing you to pay immediate medical bills, save for the future and provide protection for when you retire. You start off with a High Deductible Health Plan (HDHP). Because of the high deductible, the premiums are usually significantly less than for a more conventional policy. The idea is you pay the money saved into the HSA. Why should you do this? Well, the supposed advantages are that you control the account. You decide how the money is to be spent. If you have a standard plan, you’re always waiting for the insurer to rule on whether to pay out on your claim. With an HSA, you no longer have to wait, you can authorize immediate payment. You also control how the money is invested. With a standard policy, you rely on the insurer to invest everyone’s premiums to make them grow.

An HSA is not a product you buy. It’s a savings account run by individuals (not couples). All you need to be able to open an account is cover from an HDHP meeting the current rules. The plan does not have to be in your name so long as you have cover, say, as a spouse. Note you can have other policies to pay some of your health costs for disability, long-term care and specific diseases. But you are ineligible if you have already signed up to Medicare or, as a member of the armed forces, you have Tricare. It’s up to you to check what you are allowed to have. Your employer can set up a savings plan (although you cannot have both an HSA and a general HRA at the same time) or you can go to a bank, credit union, insurance company or one of the other bodies able to act as a trustee or custodian. A minimum deposit is usually required. You don’t have to be employed to run an HSA although, if you don’t file for Federal taxes, you cannot get the tax relief.

Put simply, this is a reasonable flexible and tax-efficient way of providing health insurance for yourself. But it has one key advantage. Although you cannot borrow against the money saved, you can make a one-time transfer from an IRA into an HSA, and the money from the account passes like a cash inheritance when you die. So unlike the usual health insurance premiums which are “lost”, savings remain savings. The big question everyone who is eligible must ask is whether they want to self-insure. Obviously, if the savings are inadequate, the HDHP will potentially pay out. That policy is safety net but the coverage is limited. So you have to judge which works better for your family’s circumstances. If you feel confident that there will always be enough available to pay for treatment during your life, this is tax free savings with you in control of the investment. But if you don’t want to take the risk, a comprehensive health plan for the family may give you better peace of mind.

As the boomer generation has aged, every part of the social system has had to bend to fit them all in. First it was the school system, then higher education. Were there going to be jobs for them all? Now, those who have survived the march of time, are finally approaching retirement making the sale of health insurance a much more competitive market. We caught up with Dave in Oakland and asked how he was preparing for his retirement. He managed a harassed smile.

“My 401(k) is dropping in value. I’m rethinking my retirement.” We looked back at his plans last year. “I was all set up to finally do some traveling. Since my wife died, I’ve been waiting on retirement to take off and see the world.” He was pitched into medical insurance that would give him cover outside the US. He said he passed the time bugging local agents to give him chapter and verse on all the policies. “Guess I was a little lonely so I did a lot of research.”

Then the stock markets went south and all his plans changed. “I’ve been looking more carefully at Medicare. The cover’s not so bad, so I’m looking at policies to top up the cover to get the best budgeted treatments whenever possible.” He smiled. “I’ve been doing the round of the same agents. Boy, were they pleased to see me again.” We talked about whether he was using the internet.

“I’ve been following the AARP’s campaign, Divided We Fail, and their plans for an HMO for Medicare folk like me look interesting. I’ve been using the online sites to get quotes as well. It’s more effort because not all of them are set up to do specialized cover for the elderly, but there’ve been some interesting quotes.”

Dave’s been a revelation. He has plenty of experience in planning his financial affairs and has been playing the field when it comes to getting quotes. As more savvy people start looking for Medigap policies, the market is likely to get more competitive and the existing discounts and incentives are likely to improve. When actual retirement is coming up, look round carefully for the right cover for you.